Crabby's Pirate

Yo-ho-ho, and a bottle of rum!

2010-01-24T11:21:00.000-08:00

This past week Vince Rabago formally announced his intention to run for Arizona Attorney General.

Notice he shaved the goatee, good for you Vinny! He's definitely running "clean" I tell you.

So a little updated power ranking for the AG race:

1)Felecia Rotellini -she's got some fight in her and hit the ground running. Attacking Lujan on the day of his announcement raised some eyebrows, could this thing get nasty? Will she announce endorsements anytime soon? And most importantly should she focus more on Rabago and less on Lujan? Stay tuned!

2)Vince Rabago -he's in second place because he just started. Everyone loves this guy and the Baja Arizona Strategy just might work. In the coming weeks let's see how he organizes his campaign-how quick will he collect those $5 contributions. He shaved the goatee (R!) but the website and logo are anemic and cartoonish. And whose heading up his campaign? Stay tuned!

3)David Lujan -his campaign is stuttering and he may be the oddman out. Minority Leader who? is what you often hear and once people learn more about his two competitors it's all uphill from there. He may have more endorsements but does that mean anything?

On a side note:

-Will "Fair-weather" Phil Gordon run? Let's hope so! The mayoral race in Phoenix would quickly heatup and it'd make for a good spectator sport.
-People are wondering if Chris Deschene has a realistic chance of winning. The odds are against him now as party insiders are sure to be supporting Sam. Deschene's once bright political future may be in peril.
-Rodney Glassman's political fortune could be decided in the Republican primary. John McNasty has already gone negative against JD Hayworth this will be fun! R!
-Fifteen men on a dead man's chest -the Republican primaries will be a real shit fight, I'll bring the popcorn and rum, you get the DVR ready!

Power Rankings:assumptions are often wrong.

2010-01-14T14:47:00.001-08:00

Power Rankings:

Attorney General
1) Felecia Rotellini - Her campaign sent out an email claiming over $100k in fundraising. Money doesn't always make you a front runner but out raising David Lujan two-to-one sure does.
3)David Lujan - the apparent decision to run "clean" my be interpreted as a sign of weakness more than anything else.
4)Vince Rabago - It may be a little to late for him, unless he runs clean. Someone was said that Vince's now long-shot candidacy had only one path to victory: Pima County. Prior to Rotellini's quarterly figures, Rubago figured that Lightweight Lujan and Fighting Felecia would split the votes and catapult him to the AG nomination.

Secretary of State
1) Sam Werciniski -apparently he's not to worried about his opponent, or so he says. For a guy whose been campaigning for over half a year his numbers better look good.
2) Christopher Deschene -people are still trying to figure out why he would rush to run for a statewide office. Apparently, folks back on the Rez aren't to happy with Mr. Deschene, that may be one of the reasons. Any others?

State Treasure
1) Andrei Cherny -Apparently this young man has a nack for raising clams, lots of clams. Doesn't hurt that he has connections from LA to Kennebunkport. And it doesn't hurt that current SoS
2) Dean Martin is now running for Governor. Perhaps Andrei should change his name to Adrei "Money" Churner

Superintendent of Public Instruction
1) Penny Kotterman -people expect a decent fundraising quarter though her public outing have been less than stellar
2) Jason Williams -switching from traditional to "clean" doesn't brood well for Jason. Campaign is turning out to be more "old hat" then "experience campaigner."

Governor (since there are no D's running against Terry, I'll include R's)
1)Terry Goddard -not having to a primary fight must feel good, like a port call in Thailand good.
2)Dean Martin -People just seem to like him. Expect the socially conservative R's to line up for this guy.
3)Jan Brewer -it's good to be the king but it sucks whale barnicles to be her right now. Did I mention the women is a terrible public speaker. You know tings are bad when you state budget plan has been furloughed from 5 points to 3 points!
4)Vernon Parker -He was hoping to be the not-Brewer candidate and then Dino jumped in. It's only hearsay but unless he can raise tons of cash expect him to drop out this quarter.
5)Munger & Mills -these two could help stimulate the Arizona economy just by running, enough said.

Attorney General -Republican (because I had so much fun posting about R's)
1)Andrew Thomas -things don't look to good for Andy, his fortunes are tied to Sheriff Joe. The campaign has had more trouble than expected, donors expect bad news from the DOJ investigation and recent Grand Jury events. Also, plenty of R's (read McCain/Symington/Woods Republicans) are actively working for or with Horne.
2)Thomas Horne -his only chances are fat DOJ charges and grand jury indictments.

Quick Hits
1) former vice-chairman turned candidate Ruben Gallegos raised close to 25k in what looks like what will be messy LD 16 race. Observers expect lots of founded/unfounded allegations and racial tensions/turf wars.
2) In LD 13, two former legislatures and an unnamed candidate are seriously eyeing a run for the state house seat now being sought by a young lawyer named Martin Quezada.
3) LD 15 -expect an odd man out type election as three Dem's vie for two state house seats.
4) LD 2- expect a well respected figure from the Rez entering race for state house (this may explain Deschene run for SoS)
5) 2010 may be the year of Young Democrats in Arizona. Numerous candidates are younger than 40 years of age and many are out raising seasoned candidates.

Power Rankings (Expanded)

2009-12-23T10:11:00.000-08:00

Attorney General

#1-Lujan:

Positives: some name ID, Hispanic-ish, Establishment support (look at the endorsements), and a fundraising network.

Negatives: minority whip w/ little to show for it, mediocre public speaking skills, "i didn't know he was a lawyer," doesn't exude strength and confidence

Overall: Cash is king, he might scare Rotellini out of the race after this quarter’s numbers come out.

#2 Rotallini

Positives: "Smart, articulate & clean," not a partisan hack, she's a woman (harder to pick on w/out looking like an asshole), short in stature but comes across tough.

Negatives: little name ID, funny name (sounds like a pasta, makes me hungry), she's not married (what's up with that), was not previously politically active, AND can she raise money?

Overall: It would be great news for her if Rabago stayed out of the race. Unless she can raise money (lots of money) she's gonna need Lujan to run a terrible campaign.

#3 Rabago

Positves: very well liked amongst activist, nice guy w/ a cute family, recently in the headlines for work w/ AG's office, has been at every Democractic event for the past year.

Negatives: waited way to long to jump in, has a family w/ young kids (does he have the time to run), can he win a statewide race, and most impotantly what's up with that goatee/beard (this makes me question his judgment--if he's going to run why hasn't he shaved it off!).

Overall: He's the lead prosecutor against Quik Cash but he needs to resign very very very soon, so he won't be able to say "I took down Quik Cash" the way Rotellini can say "I took down the Baptist Foundation ponzi scheme."

Superintendent of Public Instruction

#1 Kotterman:

Positive: Former educator, great teacher network, nice lady, supports keeping the AIMS.

Negatives: Former "union" boss, lacks the polish (off-cuff joke regarding special needs kids at the MCDP meeting wasn't funny), supports keeping the AIMS

Overall: She could have potential but the union this will be big in the general and she supports keeping AIMS (what was the AEA's position at the time AIMS was being debated?--to lazy to look)

#2 Williams:

Positives: Teach for America (Arizona ED), great network, experienced campaigner, decent campaign organization, has his shit together.

Negatives: He's so 2006, '06 theme reinforced by his web 1.0 website, Republicans may use his private life against him, can he raise money?

Overall: He's an effective speaker (people thought he had the edge in last weeks debate down in Baja Arizona) and knows what he's talkng about but again, is he an old-hat?

Secretary of State

#1 Wercinski:

Positves: veteran (has picture w/ Ronald Reagan), has been actively campaigning for months (maybe even years!), great network of supporters and friends, did well during his time at Commissioner.

Negatives: Awkward speech at MCDP meeting (sorry, it just was), does he really stand a chance against Bennet?,

Overall: It's his to lose.

#2 Deschene:

Positives: veteran (special forces), intellectual and thoughtful, has a JD and a master in engineering, Native roots could boost turnout on Rez, cute family.

Negatives: a little late, sinlge term in state house, may come across as overly ambitious, people think he's rushing things (people thought he could run for a US congressional seat)

Overall: He should wait

Treaurer
Andrei Cherney: Nice guy, policy wonk with a nice resume, he's an author. He seems to think being Treasurer will somehow effect state policy. Maybe some time in the state legistlature would have helped.

Governor
Terry Goddard: Still exploring. It looks like 2010 could be Terry's year.